AOUN, once again, morally and politically supports HIZBULLAH !
I have reported in a previous post that Aoun could be playing a double game, one internally and the second on the international level. I had based my post on testemonies and facts from both Israelis and Lebanese.
Tonight, many sources are beginning to talk about a possible UN Security Council resolution in the next 24 hours, to achieve a permanent cease-fire.
Many speculations are circulating in these moments about the contents of such a resolution.
It is more or less clear by now that the resolution would call for the deployment of the LAF (Lebanese Armed Forces), backed by an international force.
HA would have to release unconditionally the prisoners in a first step, and be disarmed with the help of the international force in a second step.
So far so good. Now, the question I have asked in my previous post , where does Aoun really stand ?
Well, at the beginning of the hostilities, he gave a statement saying that he supported the Lebanese government in ALL its decisions. Beautiful.
But as we all know, Aoun is tied with HA by an agreement made before the hostilities.
Even though he officially supports the government in all its decisions, since the beginning of the hostilities, he has not refrained from criticizing it.
Tonight, once again, truthful to himself, Aoun steps out to unilaterarly oppose this potential UN SC Resolution.
Aoun apparently refuses any disarmement of HA by external forces or extenal ways.
Moreover, he carries on by saying that he supported the government since the beginning, but that they kept making the wrong moves, and had the government adopted Aoun's alliance agreement with HA, not one single shot would have been fired.
How is that "supporting the government", I wonder ? For me, supporting someone is embracing their ideas, or at least giving to that someone useful advice. Not criticizing him all the way. Not taking the integrality of one's decisions in the interests of HA, whether it suits the government or not..
In my opinion, Aoun sheltered himself by saying he supported the government, while he in fact kept his entire independance and distance from that government, that he doesn't miss a chance to criticize.
Is it really rational at this stage to demand that the arms of HA be discussed internally, like Aoun wants ?? is it really good to go back to those masquerades, called "national dialogue" meetings, where Aound and HA opposed every decision ?
No, we cannot disarm HA internally ! and that's a fact !
So what is Aoun's aim, when he refuses to disarm HA with external ways ?
Criticizing the government puts Aoun on the front scene. Bullseye !
Once again, I am part of no lebanese political party, so refrain from throwing cheap accusations to avoid addressing the real problem at hand.
Update 1 : Aoun also said that Israel would be glad if Syria went back to Lebanon, because it would be more confortable to Israel that way.
How is that possible, I wonder. If syria is in Lebanon, Syria controls everything, including HA and the borders ! And correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think that there is lost love between Syria and Israel .... How would it be better for Israel ?
Secondly, to continue with the conspiracy theories, if Israel wanted to control Lebanon, what would be the best way to do that ? DEMOCRACY ! because a democratic Lebanon, weaker economically and militarily that Israel, is easier to control. you just have to control the president and the PM, through economic or any other way...
Update 2 : Olmert announced that he will be ordering the full ground offensive, because basically he is unhappy with the UN resolution..
So all of you in Lebanon, brace yourselves ... thank you Nasrallah (for those of you wondering, the "thank you nasrallah" is ironical)
Tonight, many sources are beginning to talk about a possible UN Security Council resolution in the next 24 hours, to achieve a permanent cease-fire.
Many speculations are circulating in these moments about the contents of such a resolution.
It is more or less clear by now that the resolution would call for the deployment of the LAF (Lebanese Armed Forces), backed by an international force.
HA would have to release unconditionally the prisoners in a first step, and be disarmed with the help of the international force in a second step.
So far so good. Now, the question I have asked in my previous post , where does Aoun really stand ?
Well, at the beginning of the hostilities, he gave a statement saying that he supported the Lebanese government in ALL its decisions. Beautiful.
But as we all know, Aoun is tied with HA by an agreement made before the hostilities.
Even though he officially supports the government in all its decisions, since the beginning of the hostilities, he has not refrained from criticizing it.
Tonight, once again, truthful to himself, Aoun steps out to unilaterarly oppose this potential UN SC Resolution.
Aoun apparently refuses any disarmement of HA by external forces or extenal ways.
Moreover, he carries on by saying that he supported the government since the beginning, but that they kept making the wrong moves, and had the government adopted Aoun's alliance agreement with HA, not one single shot would have been fired.
How is that "supporting the government", I wonder ? For me, supporting someone is embracing their ideas, or at least giving to that someone useful advice. Not criticizing him all the way. Not taking the integrality of one's decisions in the interests of HA, whether it suits the government or not..
In my opinion, Aoun sheltered himself by saying he supported the government, while he in fact kept his entire independance and distance from that government, that he doesn't miss a chance to criticize.
Is it really rational at this stage to demand that the arms of HA be discussed internally, like Aoun wants ?? is it really good to go back to those masquerades, called "national dialogue" meetings, where Aound and HA opposed every decision ?
No, we cannot disarm HA internally ! and that's a fact !
So what is Aoun's aim, when he refuses to disarm HA with external ways ?
Criticizing the government puts Aoun on the front scene. Bullseye !
Once again, I am part of no lebanese political party, so refrain from throwing cheap accusations to avoid addressing the real problem at hand.
Update 1 : Aoun also said that Israel would be glad if Syria went back to Lebanon, because it would be more confortable to Israel that way.
How is that possible, I wonder. If syria is in Lebanon, Syria controls everything, including HA and the borders ! And correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think that there is lost love between Syria and Israel .... How would it be better for Israel ?
Secondly, to continue with the conspiracy theories, if Israel wanted to control Lebanon, what would be the best way to do that ? DEMOCRACY ! because a democratic Lebanon, weaker economically and militarily that Israel, is easier to control. you just have to control the president and the PM, through economic or any other way...
Update 2 : Olmert announced that he will be ordering the full ground offensive, because basically he is unhappy with the UN resolution..
So all of you in Lebanon, brace yourselves ... thank you Nasrallah (for those of you wondering, the "thank you nasrallah" is ironical)
posted by Jean at 10:44 PM
21 Comments:
The perception in Israel was always that Syria is actually using Hezbollah to keep pressure on Israel to compromise on Golan heights.
It was thought that was it not for the syrians the lebanese could strike on some agreement with Israel long time ago.
Syria was keeping military pressure on Israel thru Hezbollah while avoiding direct military confrontation. It is like the syrian message to Israel was - the key to peace in the north of Israel is burried in the Golan heights.
today, the lebanese politicians do not have any other choice but to politically support the hezbollah.
another interesting shift is saniora also supporting hezbollah, he s saying the same thing then aoun but with others words if we are looking for ex to that interview published by lorient le jour
saniora's interview
"« Depuis des décennies, nous revendiquons des terres qui nous appartiennent. Commencez par nous les restituer et vous verrez que les tensions diminueront. Le Hezbollah a eu un rôle important, il a défendu des frontières qui ont été continuellement violées, il affronte l’invasion d’un État souverain. Éliminer les causes, cela voudrait dire aussi éliminer les effets », a ajouté le Premier ministre.
« Le Hezbollah a été créé par Israël. Pas matériellement, mais (Israël) a provoqué les conditions pour qu’il existe et se renforce dans le temps. Le Liban a été occupé pendant 20 ans et le Hezbollah a eu les moyens de justifier sa présence dans le Sud. On parle souvent de la résolution 1559 de l’ONU, mais on parle peu des résolutions auxquelles les autres ne se sont jamais soumis », a-t-il ajouté, doutant que les bombardements d’Israël sur le territoire libanais ne soient qu’une riposte à l’enlèvement le 12 juillet par le Hezbollah de deux soldats israéliens à la frontière entre les deux pays. « Vous pensez vraiment que la guerre a été déclenchée pour cela ? » demande-t-il, avant d’ajouter : « La réalité est que le Liban a subi sept invasions (dans son histoire récente). Je ne parle pas de simples attaques, car celles-ci frôlent maintenant la trentaine. Le massacre de Cana est le second en dix ans (...). Dans tout cela, je vois de l’acharnement », a conclu Fouad Siniora.
aoun's interview
"Dans une conférence de presse qu’il a tenue à Rabieh, le général Aoun a rappelé en substance qu’Israël essaie depuis 1948 de régler ses problèmes en ayant recours à la force ou à l’action militaire. Comme cette logique de la guerre n’entraîne que la guerre, à ses yeux, il a jugé qu’il est temps de changer d’approche et de favoriser une solution fondée sur le rétablissement des droits. Le général Aoun a ainsi mis l’accent sur la nécessité de procéder à un échange de prisonniers et de rendre les terres spoliées à leurs propriétaires, soulignant que ces deux éléments sont à l’origine de l’armement du Hezbollah. « Si ces causes sont réglées, la guerre prendra fin. Pourquoi faut-il qu’il y ait une force multinationale pour désarmer le Hezbollah ? Pourquoi est-ce que le principe du rétablissement de la souveraineté libanaise a-t-il été posé à travers une guerre israélienne contre le Liban ? Nous les en remercions, mais qu’ils nous laissent récupérer nous-mêmes notre souveraineté. Nous n’en voulons pas à travers l’Onu parce que la souveraineté est exercée à travers le peuple et ses représentants », a-t-il déclaré."
the war made by israel didnt decrease the hezbollah's strengh on the political site but on contrary fortified it.
the main point now is to avoid a civil war
theses kinds of statement that are dividing the lebanese are therefore negative to help lebanon, more then ever we need unity as the post conflict situation is the main concern.
Hezbollah will gain popularity among the shia as the population enjoy the social services they already have whereas the social services sponsored by the lebanese state are already weakened
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francois,
You make an interesting point.
By the way, try to post in english.
Like I said in my post, let's stop kidding ourselves. we will NEVER be able to disarm HA by ourselves. not now, not yesterday, not tomorrow.
Don't be fooled by the "patriotic" talk of many politicians, Aoun included, which say "HA is a lebanese matter, and the lebanese will address it internally".
No, HA is not an internal lebanese matter. when HA attacks another state, and drags its own country to war, in the most unstable region in the planet, how is that lebanese internal affairs ??
we always say that HA is a state within a state. I disagree, HA is a state NEXT to another state. HA's state is stronger than the lebanese state.
What Aoun wants is an unconditional cease-fire, exchange of prisoners, and later on, negiocations INTERNALLY over the status of HA.
I think no good-thinking lebanese would be fooled into this ridiculous idea.
Does Aoun or the ones supporting these ideas really think that the international community will go for that ?? No way Jose !
Time for Lebanon to wake up, and to STOP ACTING LIKE A CRYBABY !!
The lebanese politicians DO have a choice in not supporting HA, on the opposite of what you said. by the way, many, many, don't support HA !
Jean
--
well on the particular issue of the international force, the precedent of 1982 has to be taken in consideration
let s remember of 1982
before 1982 most of the fights were due because of the palestinians presence
after it used to be mainly inter lebanese fights.
the FM presence (fm stands for the initials used at that time for the international force) didnt prevent lebanon to pass from the first period to the other period
now if we think strategy, in our inventory of the situation, the conflict severely wounded the lebanese state institutions, today the marjayoun episode of the mixed units army-ISF having to leave the city whereas the hezbollah's fighters are still operating severely supported the israeli claims that the lebanese army is inefficiant.
moreover to rebuild the infrastructures that were damaged i m doubting that with a official debt ratio of 182% of the GDP the lebanese state will be also able to offer the social services the population will be asking for or even in the short term to provide a shelter for winter to the population that are homeless now
if we are looking closer to the hezbollah's speaches over the years, they always said that their weapons wont be used to fight against the lebanese
now to come back on the FM part, i would better ask to have a real lebanese army with well trained and equiped troops then a FM as was the plan and the case till 1987 when the USA were providing to the army 100 millions dollars annually.
The FM cannot stay long, now due to the strengh of the hezbollah and because we absolutly need to avoid a civil strift, we need to act on the medium and long term to disarm the hezbollah.
we cannot disarm by force a milicia that enjoys the support of at least 15% of a population , this is why today israel is having such difficulties and on the internal situation this might lead to a civil war
the first point is to turn the shia popular support that hezbollah is enjoing toward a state as we say in french "un état de droit" and to reach this objective we simply need time
this is the point that saniora understood, that aoun understood and hopefully the other lebanese politicians will also think strategically instead through the interests of their sects/communities
the lebanese politicians should learn to stop to think about their own interest first and try to think about the general interest meaning to enlarge their visions and have a global view of the current games that are played all over the middle east. (and to be noted that the new middle east maps show lebanon to be enlarged with the syrian coast and therefore more heterogene and more politically unstable)
yes the hezbollah must be disarmed but we need a medium to long term cure to reach the best results and i m afraid that the presence of this FM will be worst as a parameter of tension and frictions that might lead us to a worst situation
"yes the hezbollah must be disarmed but we need a medium to long term cure to reach the best results and i m afraid that the presence of this FM will be worst as a parameter of tension and frictions that might lead us to a worst situation"
to add why worst ? because the time frame of the FM is shorter (short term) then the time needed to act over the popularity of the hezbollah (medium to long run)
François,
I respect your opinion. I will however respond to the points you mentioned.
The FM left its work in Lebanon after HA killed hundreds of US marines and 58 French soldiers. That's why they left, that's why their mission like you said, was not successful.
The international community knows better, nowadays.
As for HA speeches, I'll draw your attention that HA stopped announcing its intention to create an islamic nation out of Lebanon only A FEW years back.
Plus, they stopped saying it, they didn't deny it. big difference.
We cannot allow ourselves, as Lebanese, to address the issue of HA's arms on a medium to long range like you said. Like we say in french, "faut battre le fer tant qu'il est chaud".
"medium to long range" will put us in a few years exactly where we are today !
Now is the ONLY chance to deal with the problem once and for all !!
you saw how incapable the lebanese were, in the national dialogue circus !
as for HA's popular support, tell me sincerly, how many do you think, support HA for their ideology, and how many support HA because HA puts bread on their table, and puts their children to schools ??
I can assure you, once the State of Lebanon starts replacing HA's social services in the south, we'll talk again about HA's popularity..
The government is weak, that's right, but there's an international will to end this matter, so the government can and will get aids from outside. look at the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, they have already promised to send at least half a BILLION dollars to Lebanon.
As for Aoun, really, my point of view, he has no political depth whatsoever...
he's a military man (he was the commander of the LAF), and has no political intelligence at all. no depth. seeking the presidency..
As for saniora, his position is not enviable.. he has his hands tied.
Finally, one MAJOR difference will exist between the UNIFIL and the future international force.
The UNIFIL is under the chapter 6 of the UN SC, that means its mission is to OBSERVE, and engage fire ONLY in ultimate self defence..
the new international force will be under chapter 7, that means it will be able to use fire to establish order and to enforce the engagements of all parties.
Ond more thing I forgot to say.
HA said clearly that the "real" battle would start after this one ends..
The so-called "scores settling", with everyone who did not support HA....
Exactly what kind of threat is this, please ?
I will try to find the article i read once, with an interview of an HA member saying just that, and that HA has the best intelligence apparatus in the country. He also added that the more civilians die, the more HA's support in lebanon grows, and that this makes him happy.
I can go on and on but I'll wait for you reply.
first to understand aoun , i would say we must not consider him as a politician but as someone that made the war school, so through the strategy he is leading
about saniora... he s not as well a politician, but an economist which major mistake was to accept the hezbollah into his government leading lebanon to be blamed bcz of that presence
the other lebanese politicians made usually a mistake with is to think over a short term strategy and not into a long term strategy.
concerning now the hezbollah, i would say that the hezbollah is not as homogenous that we might think.
first of all if we enlarge our vision to all the middle east we see that the USA are trying to reverse the arab shia alliance with iran to an alliance with a super shia state to be created in iraq which would take as well the oil fields of the shat el arab in iran and the north east of saudi arabia.
Usually historically the lebanese shia were close to the iraqi shia then the iranian. however with saddam policy along with the iranian islamic revolution this alliance diverged.
therefore today iran is strong because of the place of the shia in iraq and in Lebanon but this parameter might change
i dont believe that the hezbollah is homogeneous, i believe they have seveeral wings inside it since toufaili story few years ago, with a pro iranian wing, a pro syrian wing, a pro lebanese wing, a pro iraqi wing which would turn to be in few years pro american.
over the long run, the lebanese state might use that pro iraqi wing to turn the hezbollah's policy into his interest.
but it can only happens into a long term again.
my problem, strategically, today is to avoid civil strifes.
how?
today israel lost its battle, moreover the israeli governement is loosing the support of its public opinion, today a survey on the yehiot amariot (sorry for the orthograph of this israeli newspaper) shower that olmert policy support passed from 75% to 43%
the haaretz, so on the right side, is clearly saying today that israel's army largely underestimated the capacity of the hezbollah.
read the following articles
http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/749484.html
http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/749497.html
the FM wont be able to liquidate the hezbollah and might on the short term lead lebanon to the civil strife we are trying to avoid
the FM wont be as well equiped then the israeli forces and wont be able to stay over the long run to be able to disarm the hezbollah.
only a medium to long term strategy through the use of the lebanese state institutions might disarm the hezbollah
in case the FM uses the force we ll again divide the lebanese into ethnical/sect groups as well
by the way
according to france diplomatie, it would be the UNIFIL and not an FM
just got a mail from the quai d orsay
"La discussion va reprendre d'ici quelques minutes ou quelques heures à New York. Les points essentiels sur lesquels il nous parait nécessaire d'avancer sont, notamment, les modalités de déploiement de l'armée libanaise et, par conséquent, les modalités de retrait de l'armée israélienne, deuxièmement le mandat donné à la FINUL, qui viendrait en appui de l'armée libanaise dans cette séquence."
@mikealpha,
Actually I was looking for the interview of Sayed Ali in the Guardian !
Could you please give me the url ?
@François,
you said we should not consider aoun as a politician. I think you should tell HIM that, tell him to stop acting like one...
you gave a reason why the long term solution is a good one.
let me give you a thousand reasons why a long term solution is the end of lebanon as you and I know it:
- A long term solution means that HA will be able to recover from the blow he sustained from the IDF. YES, HA was hit severly, don't believe al-manar.
- HA will then have more cards in its hands to play on the table. this is unacceptable.
- long term means more internal divisions ! yes, françois, you are afraid of the civil war, well adopt the long term solution and you'll fall right into it.
it will be the good old "national dialogue", but the hardcore way !!
- HA will ONLY grow MORE RADICAL with time. this is a danger not to be ignored. Are you planning to tell the shiites "ok guys, now we are going to sit and talk about how we can disarm HA, on the long term."
you know what their answer will be ? "ok, long term huh ? so after that, you mean HA will be disarmed, and shiites unprotected ? let's fall deeper into HA's psychological trap, let's support it even more, and let's start being even more radical before this long term ends".
François, understand this: the satirical show Basmet Watan, mocking gently nasrallah, caused RIOTS in christian neighborhoods in Beirut, and the producer of the show has now emigrated, for fear on his life.
Long Term ???? are you ready to live with this kind of radicalism, growing up ??
Oh by the way, Olmert said he will now order the expansion of the ground offensive, because he is not happy with the UN resolution..
Brace yourselves.. and thank you Nasrallah.....
A precision: the riots in the christian neighborhood I talked about were of course made by the shiites who felt insulted, that the show mocked gently their "leader", nasrallah.
What did HA leader say ?? that it is justified !!!
Thank you Mike.
Read my new post which I just finished posting.
I think you will appreciate it.
( http://jeansouc.blogspot.com/2006/08/most-hypocritical-people-on-earth.html )
Mike
"Hezb'allah is no position to help anyone right now or in the near future. Many of their supporters are destitute refugees and it's not Hezb'allah that is feeding or sheltering them."
well the story went on, today hezbollah is offering them to rebuild their houses and during this time one year of rent.
this step was forcastable and they did it .
@jean now
"- HA will ONLY grow MORE RADICAL"
among the other things you said. HA wont be stronger then he is right now, if the state would take over its duty, hezbollah will not be able to sustain its competitive advantage in selling his image among the shia and therefore wont be so popular, by being less popular, this organization will be easier to disarm, which is the main point to reach
"the satirical show Basmet Watan, mocking gently nasrallah, caused RIOTS in christian neighborhoods in Beirut, and the producer of the show has now emigrated, for fear on his life.
Long Term ???? are you ready to live with this kind of radicalism, growing up ??"
i m more concerned by the fundamentalism we saw in ashrafieh the 5 of february then this TV show.
at that time, ashrafieh was devastated and hezbollah didnt participate.
to remind you that st maroun church in ashrafieh was attacked, the 5th of february, but the christian churches in Chiah were not attacked, as they were protected by people belonging to the Hezbollah.
Both should have been protected in first place by the state
Sorry françois, I don't seem to recall what happened on february 5th... was it the mohammed caricatures ?
@It is the economy stupid!,
Sorry to be the one who brings it to you: HA is illegal and must be disarmed. Period.
Please don't fall into the trap of saying "HA fills the gap the government cannot fill" ! it is the other way around: HA does NOT allow the government to play its role in the south/dahiyeh..
As for HA schools, I am very afraid of what is being taught there, what kind of indoctrination..
It is the same indoctrination that pushes people like you to say that the government cannot fill the gap of HA... nonsense. Let HA let the government do its job in these areas, then we'll talk again.
Don't forget that all the international community is just waiting to be able to help the government assert its authority in those regions.
As for Aoun, I hope he will one day know that HA is just using him, no more, no less.. Don't think it is a peer-to-peer relation. No way.
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