AOUN, once again, morally and politically supports HIZBULLAH ! PART 2
This is part 2 of my first post AOUN, once again, morally and politically supports HIZBULLAH ! .
I thought there would be no part 2, but general Michel Aoun(MA), once again, proved me wrong.
I just listened to an interview he gave today to the radio station "Sawt al Ghad".
First and foremost, in ALL MA's interviews that I listened too, something stroke me each and every time... NOT ONCE has he had in front of him a journalist, or attendance who doesn't share his ideas. Not once.
Today's interview was no exception, with the "unbiased" journalist thanking warmly MA at the end of the interview, for his moral support. Not to mention the questions she asked... Welcome to the USSR !
Let me try to resume what MA said in this interview.
First, he starts by saying that Israel has lost, and that all of its supporters in Lebanon have lost too. Reminds you of anything ?
He continues to say, to assert, like if speaking in HA's name (litteraly, he said "I assure the people who are afraid that.."), that HA's arms will never be turned against the lebanese, and will always serve to protect Lebanon. Good to know that he has been mandated to speak on behalf of HA...
He then says that no western country is trying to defend Lebanon, naming France and the US. And he politely invites all those who are saying otherwise to "shut up" (direct quote). Nice.. what next, declare war on France ??
He carries on to attack the government (what's new ?), saying there is not a real government (of course ! he's not in it !)
Then he accuses the governement of not having defended Nasrallah and HA against the US, who call him Terrorist.
As he put it, the government should have told the US that Nasrallah is a man followed by his people and his country which he is defending (in reference of course to the lebanese people...). uh... hello ? I do NOT follow Nasrallah, and yes, I am lebanese, was born lebanese, will die lebanese.
then, MA said that his alliance with HA was to..... reconciliate the different parts of the government between themselves (HA and march 14), and that he has no other interest whatsoever........ I swear he said that :) Do I really need to comment that ? maybe with only some keywords: presidential elections, shiites, allies.
Finally, the journalist asked MA what would be the solution, as he is a "very experienced political man". Note : MA is NOT an experienced politician, he is a MILITARY man. He has as much political depth as I have knowledge in the chinese middle age literature.
So MA answers: "the solution is that the lebanese must be lebanese"... yep, deep.
He continues to explain, saying that the lebanese leaders who used to travel and have meetings with the politicians in the US, France, etc, should not have done so. they should have sit with their lebanese counterparts instead of going seeking external support.
This, coming from the "very experienced politician"........
Note: Lebanon is a very small country used by everyone else to settle their accounts, and were it not for some external help, Lebanon would have been in much deeper trouble, to say the least.
Why doesn't he ask his allies, HA, with whom they have been meeting ? ... (hint: it's to the east !)
The journalist asked, again very "objectively": " General MA had foreseen all of this situation, before it happened, and said that it would happen, even before the war. were his words heard by the politicians ?" yes she sometimes addresses him in the 3rd person.
MA: "No, they were counting on the war to happen"..
and MA added "humbly" : "No military expert could have foreseen the nature of HA's secrets and readiness.. BUT I MYSELF can compare the IDF and the Resistance. and I MYSELF have said that HA is capable of breaking the israeli destruction machine, and it did ! with very very few casualties among HA fighters ! IDF is faced with historical shame for the civilian casualties and the destruction that outdid relatively the iraqi destruction.".... again, I swear he said that ! apparently, MA has the count of HA fighters fallen... or maybe talk is cheap.
Commenting about the positive side of the war, MA said it was the national unity that the lebanese showed ! uhu, right, exactly, and my blog is the proof of it, right ?? and the other lebanese blogs opposing HA too, right ?
Now comes one of my favorite parts. the journalist says "you have significantly contributed to the national unity between all lebanese, by your alliance with HA, and you have succeeded, and the proof to your success is the unity of the lebanese with the refugees from the south. so how can you play yet a bigger role in unity ?"
uh....excuse me ?? my friends in Lebanon accepted and took in all the refugess they could, out of humanity. IN NO WAY they are supporters of MA, and in no way they did it because of MA's alliance with HA... what a perverted way to try proving something that is in fact not true !
I guess that "Medecins sans frontières", and all the international humanitarian aids also came to Lebanon because of MA's alliance with HA...... right ?
And here, my very best part of the interview..
Then the journalist asks : "for those Lebanese who are desperate of Lebanon, what do tell them ?"
MA:" 3 things: Love, faith, and hope. because with Love you can break barriers, with faith you move mountains, and with hope you run under the sand"..
Hearing this replu, a song comes to my mind, called What If God Was One Of Us ;) I truly believe that he thinks he is some sort of divinity.
So let me resume MA's speech: To hell with the government, to hell with France, to hell with the US, I hate their guts, all of them ! the solution is love...... let us love each others..
If I can allow myself, some advice to General Michel Aoun (you are free to complete the list):
- You are NOT Jesus Christ,
- You won't become president by betraying your principles,
- You are NOT Jesus Christ,
- You cannot criticize the government on a daily basis and pretend to be helping it,
- You are NOT Jesus Christ,
- You cannot preach love when all you do is bark curses on everyone who opposes you and HA,
- You are NOT Jesus Christ,
- It doesn't do you any good to change political positions 180° just few months after your return to Lebanon,
- You are NOT Jesus Christ,
- I know you are 71 and eager to be president, but this is not the way, believe me, I was a supporter of yours..
- You are NOT Jesus Christ,
- Work hand in hand with the real and true lovers of Lebanon, even if it is against your doubtful actual political allies,
- You are NOT Jesus Christ,
- You should NOT be attacking your government, while it is coming under fire from Syria and Hizbullah, for your own personal interests,
- You are NOT Jesus Christ,
- If you really love your country, work hand in hand with the legitimate power of your country (hint: your government), instead of stupidly calling HA's arms "the defense of Lebanon",
- You are NOT Jesus Christ,
- You should not allow yourself to say that you don't need France and the west. They just might hear you, and abandon you..,
- You are NOT Jesus Christ,
- You should not take sides with ASSAD and HA, against your own government, it will backfire one day, you'll see. Like I said, I WAS a supporter of yours... already backfiring, see ?
- You are NOT Jesus Christ,
I'll stop here, even though I can go on and on.
I thought there would be no part 2, but general Michel Aoun(MA), once again, proved me wrong.
I just listened to an interview he gave today to the radio station "Sawt al Ghad".
First and foremost, in ALL MA's interviews that I listened too, something stroke me each and every time... NOT ONCE has he had in front of him a journalist, or attendance who doesn't share his ideas. Not once.
Today's interview was no exception, with the "unbiased" journalist thanking warmly MA at the end of the interview, for his moral support. Not to mention the questions she asked... Welcome to the USSR !
Let me try to resume what MA said in this interview.
First, he starts by saying that Israel has lost, and that all of its supporters in Lebanon have lost too. Reminds you of anything ?
He continues to say, to assert, like if speaking in HA's name (litteraly, he said "I assure the people who are afraid that.."), that HA's arms will never be turned against the lebanese, and will always serve to protect Lebanon. Good to know that he has been mandated to speak on behalf of HA...
He then says that no western country is trying to defend Lebanon, naming France and the US. And he politely invites all those who are saying otherwise to "shut up" (direct quote). Nice.. what next, declare war on France ??
He carries on to attack the government (what's new ?), saying there is not a real government (of course ! he's not in it !)
Then he accuses the governement of not having defended Nasrallah and HA against the US, who call him Terrorist.
As he put it, the government should have told the US that Nasrallah is a man followed by his people and his country which he is defending (in reference of course to the lebanese people...). uh... hello ? I do NOT follow Nasrallah, and yes, I am lebanese, was born lebanese, will die lebanese.
then, MA said that his alliance with HA was to..... reconciliate the different parts of the government between themselves (HA and march 14), and that he has no other interest whatsoever........ I swear he said that :) Do I really need to comment that ? maybe with only some keywords: presidential elections, shiites, allies.
Finally, the journalist asked MA what would be the solution, as he is a "very experienced political man". Note : MA is NOT an experienced politician, he is a MILITARY man. He has as much political depth as I have knowledge in the chinese middle age literature.
So MA answers: "the solution is that the lebanese must be lebanese"... yep, deep.
He continues to explain, saying that the lebanese leaders who used to travel and have meetings with the politicians in the US, France, etc, should not have done so. they should have sit with their lebanese counterparts instead of going seeking external support.
This, coming from the "very experienced politician"........
Note: Lebanon is a very small country used by everyone else to settle their accounts, and were it not for some external help, Lebanon would have been in much deeper trouble, to say the least.
Why doesn't he ask his allies, HA, with whom they have been meeting ? ... (hint: it's to the east !)
The journalist asked, again very "objectively": " General MA had foreseen all of this situation, before it happened, and said that it would happen, even before the war. were his words heard by the politicians ?" yes she sometimes addresses him in the 3rd person.
MA: "No, they were counting on the war to happen"..
and MA added "humbly" : "No military expert could have foreseen the nature of HA's secrets and readiness.. BUT I MYSELF can compare the IDF and the Resistance. and I MYSELF have said that HA is capable of breaking the israeli destruction machine, and it did ! with very very few casualties among HA fighters ! IDF is faced with historical shame for the civilian casualties and the destruction that outdid relatively the iraqi destruction.".... again, I swear he said that ! apparently, MA has the count of HA fighters fallen... or maybe talk is cheap.
Commenting about the positive side of the war, MA said it was the national unity that the lebanese showed ! uhu, right, exactly, and my blog is the proof of it, right ?? and the other lebanese blogs opposing HA too, right ?
Now comes one of my favorite parts. the journalist says "you have significantly contributed to the national unity between all lebanese, by your alliance with HA, and you have succeeded, and the proof to your success is the unity of the lebanese with the refugees from the south. so how can you play yet a bigger role in unity ?"
uh....excuse me ?? my friends in Lebanon accepted and took in all the refugess they could, out of humanity. IN NO WAY they are supporters of MA, and in no way they did it because of MA's alliance with HA... what a perverted way to try proving something that is in fact not true !
I guess that "Medecins sans frontières", and all the international humanitarian aids also came to Lebanon because of MA's alliance with HA...... right ?
And here, my very best part of the interview..
Then the journalist asks : "for those Lebanese who are desperate of Lebanon, what do tell them ?"
MA:" 3 things: Love, faith, and hope. because with Love you can break barriers, with faith you move mountains, and with hope you run under the sand"..
Hearing this replu, a song comes to my mind, called What If God Was One Of Us ;) I truly believe that he thinks he is some sort of divinity.
So let me resume MA's speech: To hell with the government, to hell with France, to hell with the US, I hate their guts, all of them ! the solution is love...... let us love each others..
If I can allow myself, some advice to General Michel Aoun (you are free to complete the list):
- You are NOT Jesus Christ,
- You won't become president by betraying your principles,
- You are NOT Jesus Christ,
- You cannot criticize the government on a daily basis and pretend to be helping it,
- You are NOT Jesus Christ,
- You cannot preach love when all you do is bark curses on everyone who opposes you and HA,
- You are NOT Jesus Christ,
- It doesn't do you any good to change political positions 180° just few months after your return to Lebanon,
- You are NOT Jesus Christ,
- I know you are 71 and eager to be president, but this is not the way, believe me, I was a supporter of yours..
- You are NOT Jesus Christ,
- Work hand in hand with the real and true lovers of Lebanon, even if it is against your doubtful actual political allies,
- You are NOT Jesus Christ,
- You should NOT be attacking your government, while it is coming under fire from Syria and Hizbullah, for your own personal interests,
- You are NOT Jesus Christ,
- If you really love your country, work hand in hand with the legitimate power of your country (hint: your government), instead of stupidly calling HA's arms "the defense of Lebanon",
- You are NOT Jesus Christ,
- You should not allow yourself to say that you don't need France and the west. They just might hear you, and abandon you..,
- You are NOT Jesus Christ,
- You should not take sides with ASSAD and HA, against your own government, it will backfire one day, you'll see. Like I said, I WAS a supporter of yours... already backfiring, see ?
- You are NOT Jesus Christ,
I'll stop here, even though I can go on and on.
posted by Jean at 3:55 PM
26 Comments:
The problem, Vox Populi, is that too many people in Lebanon are listening to him...
I am just trying to expose the guy under daylight for what he really is.
whether we like it or not, he still has supporters, among christians.
Sun,
So MA is trying to have an influence, by himself, on the whole HA. excuse me if I find it hard to believe. so you say his utmost worry is to somehow control HA, and in no way get the shiites to vote for him. to quote you, "yeah right!"
As for Geagea and Jumblat, please tell me where I said anything positive about those 2 !!! I DIDN'T ! all these war-time leaders must disappear ! they were all involved in the lebanese civil war, they must all leave. including of course MA !
Look at churchill who lost the elections after WINNING the WWII for England !
And please, tell MA to stop his personality cult !
As to your question as to how lebanon would repay his debt to France and the US, the answer is simple..... by waging a war on Israel of course and destroying our country ! does it ring a bell ???
political manoeuvring ?? "yeah right".
MA's speeches sicken me, I cannot find the same man who stood right for his ideas for many years..
I used to be fond of his ideas, but unfortunately, I am not like most aounists, that is to say, I don't fall for the personality cult. so when he says something wrong, I notice it, instead of convincing myself that it is a sort of wise political manoeuvring from the guy.
I am a free atom, I endorse the one who expresses MY opinions, and for now, jumblat and geagea are doing just that, by wanting to disarm HA, and restore lebanon's sovereignty.
If tomorrow they change their speech, rest assured that I won't endorse them anymore.
Anyway, Aoun is trying to be in a position with some influence on HA, and on the future Shia political representatives (whoever they are). He is trying to argue with a HA that has confidence in him, and not to be the one who faces HA with a US-Israeli stick. This is political manoeuvring.
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Most probably Aoun takes advantage of this situation to undermine the position of Sanyora. Nasrallah on another hand is just using Aoun to avoid disarming. Thats the only leverage MA has over Hezbollah.
Aoun may be prefering to share dominance of the political scene with Nasrallah which allows him to be a leader , even if of half of the political domain , instead of being just one of many of the amorphous mass of March 14 movement.
But undermining march 14 has its disadvantages. Aoun may discover it very soon - that US-Israel stick comes very handy, when being confronted with a private militia supported with a syrian/iranian stick.
The problem is that such insights usually happen too late.
PS: "by waging a war on Israel of course and destroying our country ! does it ring a bell ???"
It is not because there is an incident on the Pakistan-India border, every other day, that these countries start a nuclear war, or even a classic one
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Say it was enough to start 3 classic wars. During the last one India dismembered Pakistan and split it in two by supporting bangla separatists ( this is how Bangladesh was born).
Sun, Maybe I will surprise you by saying, I agree 100% with you on what you said about the politicians who stole for years. Everyone you named, I agree with you, and I think there are a lot more you could add there too (not talking about MA).
Let's elaborate a program here:
Now, who do you want to bring to justice first ?
- the ones who stole money for years, or
- the ones who stole the government's decision, the Lebanese identity, and who caused the destruction of a major part of your country, and the death of many civilians ? Those same ones who think of themselves as above the law, and don't need to consult with anyone in matters of national impact ? those same ones too, who sold your government's decisions to the syrians and iranians ?
I agree with you, both need to stand trial, so let's elaborate a program now.
Oh, and I forgot the ones who collaborated with the second category.
Aoun went to exile for 14 years, because he stood by his ideas and ideology !! I respected him a lot for that !! Why didn't he do the same now ? why did he have to sell his ideology to make a pact with the devil ? his age maybe ? I don't know.
If aoun were a smart politician like the aounists want us to believe, he would have known that 1559 and others would have never seen the light, were it not for the support of the US and France, which he is now attacking.
you said:" PS: "by waging a war on Israel of course and destroying our country ! does it ring a bell ???"
It is not because there is an incident on the Pakistan-India border, every other day, that these countries start a nuclear war, or even a classic one"
--
hmmm... actually, with my answer, I was hinting you on how HA is considering repaying his dept to Iran.
And tell me this: if HA had the power to attack israel and destroy it, would it have refrained from doing so ??
HA IS responsible for this war, stop putting blindfolds on your eyes !!! HA entered a sovereign nation, killed its soldiers and kidnapped others !! what do you want more as a declaration of war ??
Israel is strong militarily, and it is not especially fond of lebanese infrastructure, so why provoke it and kill our tourism season (6 BILLION $) and our economy for GENERATIONS to come ?
one more question: why does MA NEVER have a press conference with press from all over, not only press loyal to him because of this stupid personality cult ?
It is not because there is an incident on the Pakistan-India border, every other day, that these countries start a nuclear war, or even a classic one.
-----------
Lets say you can consider it as a possibility that any next incident on the Israeli lebanese border would indeed start a war
On Aoun:
Empty tin cans make noise.
HA demands are from my opinion trivial. 3prisonners, few miles of land, maps of landmine, and the stop of incursion and Israeli assassinations. I don't understand why Israel doesn't turn the page. and he is not willing to free Haifa, he said that this should be discussed on the level of Arab regimes.
----------------
And why the lebanese government never tried to turn the page and engage the Israeli government directly?
I well remember one of the lebanese ministers replying to Israeli demand to bring the army to the south and remove Hezbollah from the border. We are not in the business of providing security to Israel, he said.
Apparently neigher Israel is in the business of providing security to the lebanese infrastructure.
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"They all agreed and signed a common declaration, that was voted by the deputy. It is written that the Resistance can use whatever means to get its 4 demands."
----
Could you please provide a link to that ? I wuold read it with the greatest interest. Especially the part "whatever means".
The question about aoun must be considered from a strategical point of view and not from a political point of view, most of the people trying to analyse aoun are doing this mistake.
to understand aoun today, we need to consider the past, the current situation and how he is expecting things to change.
past: in 1990, the syrian lead coalition invaded baabda, among them the LF, joumblatt cheerleaders, etc... but not the hezbollah that was present not so far from baabda, in dahieh
present situation, avoiding a civil war due to the lack of the state as a strong state on the internal side, and due to the external aspect of the fundamentalism spreading over the middle east
presently, the hezbollah is now the main winner on the political side and on the militaristic side:
politicaly saniora etc... even joumblatt had to support them
on the other side, the defeat of tsahal to disarm the hezbollah and now the difficulties to gather an international force show that it s not so easy to disarm this organisation without a political agreement with them.
sorry they dont need aoun, whoever is saying that they need aoun to bave a political protection to still gain the right to have theses weapons is making a huge mistake today.
the question of the disarmement must not be adressed in the short term without the agreement with the hezbollah
if no agreement can be reached, we have first to strengh the autority of the state then to disarm it , which leads to a medium to long term action
moreover, it is not the time for political attack, it is clear that more dangers are ahead of the long road to rebuild the country and more then ever the political class needs to work together on this long term.
if we are putting ourselves in aoun's shoes, who is trustable?
those who attacked baabda or those who participated by being inside the governement to the syrian occupation of lebanon? or those who remained aside?
one lesson of Machiavel: trust those that never deny their friendship even with your enemy and be careful with the windatker
@anonymous,
I believe that back in 1990, syria also attacked baabda...
And furthermore, even if HA didn't attack baabda with their own men, they were supportive of Syria.
Aoun himself was attacking Ha, even upon his return to Lebanon. I don't know if you read all of my post, but when aoun returned from exile, he was dead set against HA. then he made a 180° shift, when he saw the march 14 won't let him be THE leader of the coalition.
dear Jean
as said Aoun in one interview, we cannot today fight 1 Millions of people supporting HA.
to remind you that HA represented 15.8% of the votes during the last legislative elections, the future + joumblatt + the LF had only 21% of the votes.
due to the legislative law, the current representation in the parlement is not representing the true vision of the political representation of the lebanese population.
to remind you, aoun and tayyar got the support of 14% of the lebanese population.
Aoun was attacking HA ok... but right now it seems he is working according to the reality of the current situation
to add:
today we have to work to avoid a civil war.
we cannot disarm the HA without as a prerequisite build the state and offer an alternative to the local populations. and lebanon is needing time for it.
the so called majority (21% of the votes) should build up a long term strategy instead of acting on the short term.
yesterday, joumblatt's talks were counter-productive, he is a warlord, he destroyed the country and now blaming the hezbollah for beginning the conflict should lead him thinking about his own actions during the civil war.
he is a secterian leader, he is acting toward the interest of his own community as he was allied with the HA in baabda aley last year to try to balance aoun's influence in this region, as well as he imposed the HA inside the governement.
that guy especially as a windtaker is not trustable as his own interest is to divide any coalition which interest would be to build up the autority of the state as it is a threat for his own feodalistic leadership among the druze
@anonymous,
when you say "as said Aoun in one interview, we cannot today fight 1 Millions of people supporting HA."
Do you mean by that to defend MA?
because if you intended to justify him by saying that, you just did the opposite.
So "if you cannot fight them, join them" ??
Thank you, you just explained to me why MA joined the wrong path. it is because he couldn't afford to fight them.
Again, fighting HA doesn't necessarily mean with guns and rockets. Be it only by words, positions !! But I guess, being a military man, MA doesn't believe in the strenght of the word.
Moreover, you say jumblatt is a warlord. I wonder what is MA then...
All these folks are responsible for wars and deaths ! all ! MA is absolutely no exception whatsoever, with the wars he took part in, if not caused, in Lebanon.
Furthermore, you say that we must work to aviod a civil war. do you think it is a good idea to avoid a civil war, but by that cause the destruction of the country by an ennemy State ?
Anyway, I must thank you, because you have the courage to come and defend MA in a post where practically most of the comments are anti-MA. I respect that, and hope that you know that I will defend your right to state your opinion.
Better to have 70% of the population on one side then follow the ups and downs of a cke head and a killer ..
dear jean
first of all, in 1988 to 1990, as very well stated by a documentary made by the german and french TV arté, the point was not to win the war but to adress the illegitimate presence of the syrian troops in lebanon. by attacking baabda, the syrians and their allies, among them Joumblatt, Geagea won maybe the war, but the question was still actual and many people and i have been reading that you were among them.
in my opinion aoun tried to do in 1988 what the lebanese army should have been doing in 1975, meaning acting against the destabilisation process of the country, however it was useless as the army at that time was already divided and i cannot forget the story of that helicopter one of joumblatt fan's have stolen in 1986.
Aoun acted as being appointed as the Prime minister therefore he was having the legitimicy to do so, contraly to the others warlord, and therefore that distinction is clear.
Second, as said one of my friend that is among the executive of tayyar, there is a common point with the Hezbollah right now. both of them are a nationalist movement. Based on that nationalism, they are against the current foreign influences over the executive, and the current executive is as we all know liked to saudi arabia.
let s enlarge our vision to the middle east and idenfy the threats.
thinking about irak, syria etc... we see that 3 axes emerge today
1 an iranian axis
2 a saudian axis
3 an americain axis
the USA are trying to impose a new middle east in this region, this new middle east consisting of dismantlying iraq in 3 states, iran in 3 states, and saudi arabia over the long run.
to this factor, saudi arabia tried to secure a sunnit axis and its first battle was over lebanon through a political influence on some lebanese politicians and by pushing khaddam in syria (as they tried last year to promote khaddam as their main tool on al arabya channel).
and the iranian axis based on the current situation with iran, the strengh of the shia in iraq and in lebanon but they are threatened by the american policy in iraq, the war that happened in iran and this new middle east.
now lebanon as we all know is surrounded by a theocracy and by syria which is mainly sunnit
i do not think that hezbollah is a threat based on that, there are more convergencies of interest today with the christians against the new middle east (which means 30 years of war) and against the sunnit fundamentalism.
we cannot think today about lebanon without understanding the bigger picture and all the chess games that are around us.
Joumblatt think "druze"
saad hariri plays the role of the saudi axis and the american axis and will be soon or later torn btw the 2 axis.
hezbollah is playing the iranian axis but the syrian regime is agonising for economical reasons. it s just a matter of time before the regime will be overthrown, the problem is that khaddam is not acceptable for the american axis and the possible replacement was killed (ghazi kenaan).
moreover the USA are creating a arabic-shia-iraqi new state and i believe for some ethnical reasons that the hezbollah will be torn btw his iranian allegance and his historical links with the iraqi that are shia.
now should lebanon be a part of that game. or should be think as lebanese ?
how to avoid being just a piece over that chess game?
to come back on aoun's attitude, his past, and present actions is leading me he doesnt have any allegance or to the US or to the saudi, nor to iran, he is trying to navigate btw the axis in place.
now on the other issue, as a former economist and analysis, i can just tell you that lebanon is in real trouble in case a civil war is happening, this time we simply wont have the funds to rebuild in case such civil war happens, moreover we wont be able to economically sustain the crash of our economy as we barely did during the 80's
just to answer to the anon 6:14 pm
the majority does not represent 70% of the population but because of this infame electoral law they gained a majority with just 21% of the votes with is another proove that our political system is as we say in french "passé" and that we need badly need to reform it
@anonymous,
you said "the syrians and their allies, among them Joumblatt, Geagea won maybe the war, but the question was still actual and many people and i have been reading that you were among them."
I was among whom ??
In any case, if you should know, I supported Aoun. Actually I supported Aoun till very very recently, and his 180° shift.
Secondly, I do not adhere to your view of the US policy in the region. I respect it however.
But as you seem to like to speak on the long term, the alliance of HA with the christians, against sunni fundamentalism, like you put it, could only be good on the SHORT term.
All your theory falls apart on the long term.
I am christian, and I do believe I belong to the region. Christians ruled the land not long ago, if you can remember.
But in a region where extremism and fundamentalism are growing fast, you cannot identify yourself in the saying "My ennemy's ennemy is my friend"... this is only good for the short term.
What would kill Lebanon is extremism, from one side or the other.
As I said, I do not agree with your view on the american policy of the middle east, but it doesn't justify Aoun's atitude anyhow.
Moreover, Aoun counted a great deal on the US and French support, when he was in exile. Believe me, he was dependant on them... I can't understand why you said he never did.
If I were Bush or Chirac now, I would be really pissed about Aoun.. but that's me..
As for the civil war cost, do you really think Lebanon could afford the war it just had ????
I hope civil war will never happen again, but as I see it, if it unfortunately came to happen, I see only one solution at the end of such a war: Confederation..
Sorry for that hasty answer, I'm leaving here now, so maybe I'll get time to answer you more properly later.
Hi Jean
Impressive accounts of Aoun's stances since the war began, but my answer which i asked in Lebanese Politcal Journal is still not answered, which is " Does Aoun still enjoy support from his Christian constituents after all this?" Sorry if you answered that in the comments section but I really don't have time to read through all the comments. I shall appreciate if you answer again.
Regards
Great editorial from the Lebanese Daily Star newspaper that shows what's at play in Lebanon:
http://www.dailystar.com.lb/article.asp?edition_id=1&categ_id=5&article_id=74782
And a good editorial from the Israeli Jerusalem Post on what some voices are saying in Israel:
http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?apage=1&cid=1154525886888&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull
Well worth your time reading them.
- S
Dear Jean
when you are saying:
"But as you seem to like to speak on the long term, the alliance of HA with the christians, against sunni fundamentalism, like you put it, could only be good on the SHORT term.
All your theory falls apart on the long term."
on contrary today we have to act to avoid future troubles, it is like having today the choice with a road that is having a danger and another road
our choices should be in the short term to decrease our risks to be able to, in the long term, have the best opportunities.
we all know here that lebanon is the proxi of all the fights in the middle east, lebanon used to be the proxi of the nationalism fight in 1958, the palestinian fights from 1975 till 1982, the proxi for the emergence of syria and the proxi for the exportation of the iranian islamic revolution etc...
the axis game that is currently happening in the middle east will be having a huge impact on lebanon as long us we ll have a weak political system and as as long as we wont have a strong executive able to deal with theses threats and as long as we wont have people with balls getting into power, able to take decisions. the current executive lost its credibility by making too much compromises with among the other things Hezbollah.
now coming back to the axes games, what are the impact over lebanon of theses axes. what would happen for ex if:
1 the american axis win over the middle east (which is today the most uncertain situation). Lebanon according to some information would get all coast of syria, lebanon would be more unstable and i m sure that you as a christian you would be feeling threatened as we would have a sunnit majority of more then 50%.
Moreover, we would have an unstable lebanon as far as syria will try to get its coast back.
also from a personal point of view, i m thinking that this great lebanon would be an historical mistake as theses regions never historically belonged to the historical lebanon
what is now the iranian axis wins, which is as well another scenario but i do not think it s the most certain scenario.
if iran wins, it would mean that the syrian regime would stabilise itself.
however from my point of view, the most certain scenario based on historical facts, such as the way that the nationalism originating from egypt in the middle of the last century erupted in the region leads me to think that today this nationalism replaced by the fundamentalism, originating from saudia arabia is the biggest threat to the lebanese.
the arabic nationalism erupted in egypt with nasser, we know what happened in 1958 in lebanon, but futhermore we see how the palestinians were contaminated through the LPO constitutiant, through the arrival of Hafez el Assad in Syria and Saddam in Iraq, through the events that occured in Jordan in 1970.
this nationalism seems to be replaced by the sunnit fundamentalism with what we saw during the elections in egypt (1/3 of seats are not belonging to the muslim brotherhood) in jordan as well, we know what happened with the Hamas, we see what is happening among the sunnit in Iraq
the main threat for lebanon is today to have a syrian islamic republic and also the impact of this fundamentalism on the lebanese scene.
we saw what happened last 5 of feb, we saw fatfat allowing the constitution of an islamic party mainly represented in tripoli
now about aoun's foreign support, the USA never supported aoun, there was convergence of interest at a certain time, when the syrian accountability act was voted. let s remember what happened in the 90's.
about now the current situation, lebanon was economically dead from a long time, we didnt have an economical politic that we needed.
we bunkerised the lebanese pound without taking in consideration the real value of the lebanese pound.
i would need an entire post to explain what happened but i would just add that the lebanese pound value is artificial and due to the tensions that were already prevailing before the conflict, i m afraid that this time the financial system will collaps. we are as i like to say in a situation of "coma dépassé" and it is a miracle to still be alive till now, in case we ll wake up it ll be another miracle
Anonymous,
I think what you are saying is interesting, although I do not agree on everything.
However, if you agree, I would like to open a new thread with our discussion here, and let also others participate.
I think you have interestng ideas, whether I agree or not.
Actually, I have been thinking about such a thread, because we do share many ideas about your last post.
Tell me if you agree that I open a new post including your comments.
of course you can open a new threat :)
or tiring day , thread :s
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